Macro Overview – A Market on Edge
Inflation Cooling, but Not Enough: While recent CPI data shows a slowdown, core inflation remains sticky in the US and EU.
Labor Markets Still Tight: Employment numbers in both regions remain above trend, keeping pressure on central banks.
Central Banks’ Next Moves:
FOMC (Sept 17–18): A pause is possible, but even a slightly hawkish tone could strengthen the USD and pressure equities.
ECB (Sept 12): Facing stagflation concerns, the decision could impact the euro’s trajectory and EU risk assets.
Why it matters: Central bank positioning will dictate risk-on or risk-off flows for the rest of the month.
Key Technical Levels – Where the Battles Are Fought
📈 S&P 500
Resistance: 4,500 – strong selling zone; a breakout could trigger trend-following inflows.
Support: 4,370 – holding here maintains the bullish bias.
💰 Bitcoin (BTC)
Critical Support: $26,500 – below here, sellers gain control.
Breakout Trigger: $28,000 – upside acceleration likely if breached with volume.
🪙 Ethereum (ETH)
Demand Zone: $1,600 – strong buyer interest; risk of deeper pullback if broken.
Ceiling: $1,750 – a decisive close above here would shift short-term sentiment bullish.
💵 DXY (US Dollar Index)
Reversal Zone: 104.20–104.50 – a break higher could pressure commodities and crypto; rejection could lift risk assets.
September Catalysts – Mark Your Calendar
FOMC Meeting (Sept 17–18) – Any hint of future tightening could jolt markets.
ECB Meeting (Sept 12) – Possible surprise if growth concerns outweigh inflation control.
US CPI (Sept 11) & PPI (Sept 12) – Inflation trajectory in sharp focus.
Tech Earnings – NVIDIA, Apple, and other mega-caps could drive sector-wide sentiment.
Crypto & DeFi Events – Ethereum network upgrades, token unlocks, and protocol launches could shift on-chain flows.
Sentiment Snapshot – The Mood of the Market
Current bias: Cautiously Optimistic
Equities: Bullish, but with lower conviction ahead of macro data.
Crypto: Range-bound with breakout potential in either direction.
USD: Slightly bullish, awaiting central bank cues.
For more tips
🔍 Key Takeaway
September will be a trader’s month — not an investor’s month.
Price action is likely to be headline-driven, with sharp intraday swings around data releases. Winning here means:
Staying nimble.
Adjusting position sizes to reduce drawdowns.
Respecting technical boundaries to avoid chasing false breakouts.
That’s it for this week.
💡 Tomorrow in our Playbook: How to structure trades and control risk during high-volatility weeks, including a position-sizing matrix you can apply instantly.
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